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Montealegre, Ortega Almost Tied in Nicaragua
(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The presidential race in Nicaragua has two clear frontrunners, according to a poll by M&R. 27.9 per cent of respondents would vote for former presidency secretary Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC), while 27.2 per cent would support former president Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN).
Former Managua mayor Herty Lewites is third with 17.9 per cent, followed by José Rizo of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) with 13.3 per cent, and Edén Pastora of Christian Alternative (AC) with 1.2 per cent.
In 2001, the PLC's Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The president lost the support of the PLC in January 2002, when his government decided to take legal action against Arnoldo Alemán. In 2004, Alemán—who governed the country from 1997 to 2002—was sentenced to 20 years in prison for fraud, money laundering and embezzlement.
The PLC and the FSLN have traditionally been the dominant parties in the Central American country's political scene. Montealegre is a former member of the PLC, and Lewites was expelled from the FSLN and assembled the Herty 2006 Alliance (AH).
Yesterday, Montealegre announced that former San José de los Remates mayor and agricultural entrepreneur Fabricio Cajina would be his running mate. Montealegre explained his decision, saying, "We were impressed by his humility and the deep knowledge he has of the needs producers have."
The presidential and legislative election is scheduled for Nov. 5. In the event no contender receives 40 per cent of all cast ballots, the first place finisher can only avoid a run-off by holding a five-point advantage over the closest rival.
In four prospective run-off scenarios, Montealegre would emerge victorious against Lewites, Ortega, Rizo or Pastora.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
May 2006 | Mar. 2006 | |
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN) | 27.9% | 26.6% |
Daniel Ortega (FSLN) | 27.2% | 23.5% |
Herty Lewites (AH) | 17.9% | 22.3% |
José Rizo (PLC) | 13.3% | -- |
Edén Pastora (AC) | 1.2% | -- |
Run-Off Scenarios
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN) 41.2% - 32.2% Herty Lewites (AH)
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN) 48.9% - 31.8% Daniel Ortega (FSLN)
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN) 49.3% - 19.2% José Rizo (PLC)
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN) 52.6% - 9.2% Edén Pastora (AC)
Source: M&R
Methodology: Interviews with 4,227 Nicaraguan adults, conducted from May 16 to May 22, 2006. Margin of error is 1.5 per cent.