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Debate Boosts Support for Calderón in Mexico

May 05, 2006

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Felipe Calderón of the governing National Action Party (PAN) has extended his lead in Mexico's presidential race, according to a poll by Reforma. 40 per cent of respondents would support the former energy secretary in this year's ballot.

Former Mexico City mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) is second with 33 per cent, followed by former Tabasco governor Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with 23 per cent, Patricia Mercado of the Social-Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party (PASC) with 3.7 per cent, and Roberto Campa of the New Alliance Party (PNA) with 0.7 per cent.

Support for Calderón among likely voters increased by two points in eight days, while backing for López Obrador and Madrazo fell by two points and one point respectively. López Obrador did not take part in the Apr. 25 presidential debate. The PRD nominee will attend a second and final meeting of candidates on Jun. 6.

The PAN's Vicente Fox ended 71 years of uninterrupted rule by the PRI in the 2000 election, winning a six-year term with 42.5 per cent of the vote.

Yesterday, Calderón said he would be willing to invite members of other political organizations to create a joint program for the country, declaring, "I wish I could be able to convince the whole PRI, I know it will not be possible, but I do wish to share my plans and the responsibility."

In the race for the Chamber of Deputies, the PAN is first with 39 per cent, followed by the leftist Alliance for the Common Good with 30 per cent, and the Alliance for Mexico—featuring the PRI and the Green Environmentalist Party (PVEM)—with 26 per cent.

The Mexican presidential and legislative election is scheduled for Jul. 2.

Polling Data

If the presidential election took place today, who would you vote for?
(Likely Voters)

Apr. 30

Apr. 22

Mar. 2006

Felipe Calderón (PAN)

40%

38%

31%

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD)

33%

35%

41%

Roberto Madrazo (PRI)

22%

23%

25%

Patricia Mercado (PASC)

3.7%

2.6%

1%

Roberto Campa (PNA)

0.7%

0.6%

1%

If the election to the federal Chamber of Deputies took place today, what party would you vote for?

Apr. 30

Apr. 22

Mar. 2006

National Action Party (PAN)

39%

40%

34%

Alliance for the Common Good
Democratic Revolution Party (PRD)
Workers Party (PT)
Convergence for Democracy (CD)

30%

29%

35%

Alliance for Mexico
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)
Green Environmentalist Party (PVEM)

26%

27%

28%

Social-Democratic and
Peasant Alternative Party (PASC)

2.9%

2.5%

1%

New Alliance Party (PNA)

2.2%

1.7%

2%

Source: Reforma
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,100 likely Mexican voters, conducted from Apr. 28 to Apr. 30, 2006. Margin of error is 2.3 per cent.