Polls & Research

Kerry Would Defeat Bush in New U.S. Election

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The outcome of the 2004 United States presidential election would be different if a new ballot took place this year, according to a poll by Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for Democrat John Kerry, while 40 per cent would support Republican George W. Bush.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the U.S. Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia. As far as the popular vote is concerned, Bush garnered 51.03 per cent of all cast ballots, with Kerry getting 48.04 per cent.

In a January 2005 interview with NBC's Tim Russert, Kerry expressed satisfaction with his campaign, saying, "I won the youth vote. I won the independent vote. I won the moderate vote. If you take half the people at an Ohio State football game on Saturday afternoon and they were to have voted the other way, you and I would be having a discussion today about my State of the Union speech."

On Apr. 20, Kerry discussed the possibility of a presidential bid in 2008, saying, "I will make that decision before the end of the year but I'm thinking about it hard." The Massachusetts senator jokingly added, "If you can help me find 60,000 votes in Ohio."

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Regardless of how you may have voted in the presidential election in November 2004, knowing what you know today, would you vote for George W. Bush or John Kerry if the presidential election was being held today?