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Peru 2006: Humala, Flores Would Reach Run-Off
(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Ollanta Humala heads to tomorrow's presidential election in Peru as the top contender, according to a poll by Universidad de Lima released by AFP. 29.2 per cent of respondents would vote for the Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) member.
Lourdes Flores Nano of the Popular Christian Party (PPC) is second with 25.6 per cent, followed by former president Alan García of the American Revolutionary People's Alliance (APRA) with 21.9 per cent. Former head of state Valentín Paniagua of Popular Action (AP) and Martha Chávez of New Majority (NM) are also contending.
The presidential election will take place tomorrow. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on May 7. In two prospective second round scenarios, Humala would be defeated by either Flores Nano or García.
In her last campaign rally on Apr. 6, Flores Nano declared, "I urge all voters not to permit improvisation or demagoguery lead us again. I urge you to not repeat past mistakes in economic and social policies that brought hunger and despair to the country."
Current president Alejandro Toledo won the June 2001 election as the Possible Peru (PP) nominee over the APRA's García. Toledo cannot seek a consecutive term in office.
Polling Data
Which of these candidates would you support in the presidential election?
Apr. 2006 | Feb. 2006 | Jan. 2006 | |
Ollanta Humala (PNP) | 29.2% | 27.6% | 16.8% |
Lourdes Flores Nano (PPC) | 25.6% | 33.6% | 28.1% |
Alan García (APRA) | 21.9% | 20.5% | 11.9% |
Valentín Paniagua (AP) | n.a. | 8.5% | 7.2% |
Martha Chávez (NM) | n.a. | 4.8% | 2.5% |
Run-Off Scenarios
Lourdes Flores Nano (PPC) 48.6% - 37.7% Ollanta Humala (ME)
Ollanta Humala (ME) 37.7% - 41.3% Alan García (APRA)
Source: Universidad de Lima / AFP
Methodology: Interviews with 2,380 Peruvian adults, conducted from Apr. 5, 2006. Margin of error is 2 per cent.