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Most Americans Now Expect Civil War in Iraq
(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Many adults in the United States are worried about increasing sectarian tension in Iraq, according to two recent public opinion polls. In a survey by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News, 81 per cent of respondents think it is very likely or somewhat likely that Iraq will end up in a civil war.
In a study by Gallup released by CNN and USA Today, 73 per cent of respondents think it is likely that there will be a major civil war involving ethnic or religious groups in Iraq in the next year.
The coalition effort against Saddam Hussein's regime was launched in March 2003. At least 2,298 American soldiers have died during the military operation, and more than 16,900 troops have been wounded in action.
On Feb. 22, suspected insurgents placed two bombs inside Samarra's Shiite Golden Mosque. The event has led to several days of sectarian violence in Iraq. More than 500 people have died, and more than 180 Sunni mosques have been destroyed.
Yesterday, senior U.S. ground commander George Casey discussed the situation, saying, "(Insurgents) were primarily responsible for the attacks against the mosques in the Baghdad area, and we continue to follow up on the information that we have on these with the Iraqi security forces."
In an interview broadcast on ABC on Feb. 28, U.S. president George W. Bush declared, "I don't buy (the) premise that there's going to be a civil war (in Iraq)."
Polling Data
a) How likely do you think it is that Iraq will end up in a civil war?
Very likely | 49% |
Somewhat likely | 32% |
Not very likely | 9% |
Not likely at all | 5% |
Depends | 2% |
Not sure | 3% |
Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 900 registered American voters, conducted on Feb. 28 and Mar. 1, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
b) Just your best guess, do you think it is likely or unlikely that there will be a major civil war involving ethnic or religious groups in Iraq in the next year?
Likely | 73% |
Unlikely | 20% |
Already occurring | 2% |
No opinion | 5% |
Source: Gallup / CNN / USA Today
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,020 American adults, conducted on Feb. 28 and Mar. 1, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.