Polls & Research

Canada Election 2006: Tories Seem Headed for Victory

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The opposition Conservative party remains the most popular political organization in Canada, according to a poll by Ipsos-Reid released by CanWest Global. 38 per cent of respondents would support the Conservatives in next Monday's federal election.

The governing Liberal party is second with 26 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent, and the Green party with five per cent.

Support for the Tories and the NDP increased by one point, while backing for the Bloc fell by two points.

The provincial breakdown shows the Conservatives with a six-point lead in British Columbia, a 51-point advantage in Alberta, a 21-point edge in the Prairies, a four-point lead in Ontario, and a two-point advantage in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, 46 per cent of respondents would back the Bloc.

Canadians will elect a new government on Jan. 23. The Liberal party has formed the federal administration since 1993.

A separate online poll, released on the last day of the campaign, places the Conservatives with 38 per cent, followed by the Liberals with 27 per cent, the NDP with 19 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 12 per cent, and the Green party with four per cent.

Ipsos-Reid's seat projection suggests the Conservatives—headed by Stephen Harper—would secure anywhere from 148 to 152 seats in the House of Commons, followed by the Liberals with 62 to 66, the Bloc with 56 to 60, and the NDP with 34 to 38. Parties require 155 lawmakers to establish a majority administration.

Background - How it began, how we got here
Campaign Log - Day-to-day coverage of parties and leaders
The Numbers - Where the parties stand, where they go
Live Commentary - Who's winning, who's losing, why it matters

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next federal election?

Provincial Breakdown (Jan. 17 - Jan. 19)