Polls & Research

Canadians Assess Likelihood of Independent Quebec

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Adults in Quebec and the rest of Canada hold differing views on the immediate future of the country's largest province, according to a poll by Ekos Research Associates published in the Toronto Star. 50 per cent of respondents in Quebec believe it is likely or somewhat likely that the province will separate from Canada in the next two years, while only 24 per cent of respondents in the remaining provinces concur.

Canada's largest province has held two plebiscites on sovereignty. In May 1980, a motion to provide Quebec with "the exclusive power to make its laws, levy its taxes and establish relations abroad" and "maintain with Canada an economic association including a common currency" was rejected by 59.56 per cent of all voters.

In October 1995, a new referendum on whether Quebec should "become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership" was narrowly defeated by a 50.58 per cent to 49.42 per cent margin.

This year, the Canadian government and the Liberal party have been affected by the public inquiry into the federal sponsorship program initiated during the tenure of prime minister Jean Chrétien to promote Canada in Quebec. In February 2004, auditor-general Sheila Fraser concluded that approximately $75 million U.S. of the program's budget was paid to Liberal-friendly advertising firms for little or no work.

In March 2000, the House of Commons passed the Clarity Act, which was ratified by the Senate in June 2000. The legislation mandates that any question on the possible secession of a Canadian province be "unambiguous" and allows Canada's lower house to override a referendum's outcome under special circumstances.

This month, former provincial cabinet minister André Boisclair became the new leader of the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ). Boisclair has promised a new referendum should his party emerge victorious in the next provincial election, expected in 2007. 53 per cent of Quebecers believe it is likely or somewhat likely that the province will separate from Canada in the next five years, while only 28 per cent of respondents in the remaining provinces concur.

Canada will elect a new federal government on Jan. 23, 2006. The separatist Bloc Québécois currently holds 54 of Quebec's 75 seats in the House of Commons.

Polling Data

What is the likelihood that Quebec will separate from Canada in the next two years?

What is the likelihood that Quebec will separate from Canada in the next five years?