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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Bachelet Drops, But Still Leads in Chile
(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Michelle Bachelet of the Socialist Party (PS) is holding on to the top spot in Chile's presidential race, according to a poll by Centro de Estudios Públicos. 39 per cent of respondents would support the former defence minister in next month's ballot, down six points since September.
Businessman Sebastián Piñera of National Renewal (RN) is second with 22 per cent, followed by former Santiago mayor Joaquín Lavín of the conservative Independent Democratic Union (UDI) with 21 per cent, and Tomás Hirsch of the leftist Together We Can (JP) with three per cent.
The Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD)—which includes the PS, the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD)—officially nominated Bachelet in July.
Lavín lost the 2000 run-off to current head of state Ricardo Lagos of the CPD by 2.6 per cent. The presidential election is scheduled for Dec. 11. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, the top two finishers will participate in a second round on Jan. 15, 2006.
Lavín said the poll's results reflect "that the so-called Bachelet phenomenon is over" and that a run-off "is now inevitable." Conversely, Hirsch—who had enjoyed a surge in support in recent surveys—said his candidacy "is growing, and we are definitely close to 10 per cent nationwide."
Polling Data
Who would you vote for if the presidential election took place this Sunday?
Nov. 2005 | Sept. 2005 | Jun. 2005 | |
Michelle Bachelet (CPD) | 39% | 45% | 47% |
Sebastián Piñera (RN) | 22% | 17% | 16% |
Joaquín Lavín (UDI) | 21% | 20% | 22% |
Tomás Hirsch (JP) | 3% | 2% | 2% |
Run-off Scenarios
Michelle Bachelet (CPD) 48% - 33% Joaquín Lavín (UDI)
Michelle Bachelet (CPD) 45% - 37% Sebastián Piñera (RN)
Source: Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP)
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,505 Chilean adults, conducted from Oct. 15 to Nov. 4, 2005. Margin of error is 2.7 per cent.