Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Morales Gets Two-Point Lead in Bolivia

November 16, 2005

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Movement to Socialism (MAS) candidate Evo Morales is the top presidential hopeful in Bolivia, according to a poll by Grupo Ipsos Captura. 30.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the indigenous leader in next month's election.

Former head of state Jorge Quiroga of We Can (Podemos) is second with 28.7 per cent, followed by Samuel Doria Medina of the National Unity Front (FUN) with 13.9 per cent, and Michiaki Nagatani of the Nationalist Revolutionary Movement (MNR) with five per cent.

The remaining presidential candidates are Felipe Quispe of the Indigenous Pachakuti Movement (MIP), Gildo Angulo of the New Republican Force (NFR), Néstor García of the Bolivian Workers Social Union (USTB) and Eliseo Rodríguez of the Bolivian Farming Patriotic Front (FREPAB).

In June, a series of demonstrations calling for the nationalization of the hydrocarbon industry and constitutional amendments forced the resignation of interim president Carlos Mesa. Former chief justice of the Supreme Court Eduardo Rodríguez became the country's head of state, promising to hold a presidential election before the end of the year.

On Nov. 2, the election was re-scheduled for Dec. 18 after a deal was reached to finalize the regional allocation of legislative seats. A constituent assembly and a referendum on the current division of powers would take place in July 2006.

On Nov. 14, Morales ruled out participating in a debate with Quiroga, saying, "I do not intend to meet with a son of neo-liberalism. (...) I have nothing to say to (former president) Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada's twin." Podemos issued a communiqué, urging all candidates to join public meetings so the people "can have the opportunity to choose and compare programs and proposals."

In accordance with the constitution, lawmakers in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate select the president from the top two finishers in the event no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote.

Polling Data

If these candidates ran for president, which one would you support?

 

Nov. 2005

Oct. 2005

Evo Morales (MAS)

30.7%

28.3%

Jorge Quiroga (Podemos)

28.7%

29.2%

Samuel Doria Medina (FUN)

13.9%

16.5%

Michiaki Nagatani (MNR)

5.0%

4.1%

Source: Grupo Ipsos Captura
Methodology: Interviews with 2,400 adult Bolivians in ten cities, conducted from Nov. 1 to Nov. 6, 2005. Margin of error is 2 per cent.

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