October 31, 2005

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - Former defence minister Michelle Bachelet continues to dominate Chile's presidential race, according to a poll by Centro de Estudios de la Realidad Contemporánea. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the Socialist Party (PS) member this year's ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Former defence minister Michelle Bachelet continues to dominate Chile's presidential race, according to a poll by Centro de Estudios de la Realidad Contemporánea. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the Socialist Party (PS) member this year's ballot.

Former Santiago mayor Joaquín Lavín of the conservative Independent Democratic Union (UDI) is second with 17 per cent, followed by businessman Sebastián Piñera of National Renewal (RN) with 16 per cent, and Tomás Hirsch of the leftist Together We Can (JP) with seven per cent.

The Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD)—which includes the PS, the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD)—officially nominated Bachelet in July.

Lavín lost the 2000 run-off to current head of state Ricardo Lagos of the CPD by 2.6 per cent. The presidential election is scheduled for Dec. 11. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, the top two finishers will participate in a second round.

On Oct. 27, Bachelet vowed to implement a better Social Security system in the South American nation, saying, "I can commit to an effective reform that would allow for a better pension system, and a more dignified retirement."

José Piñera—who served as labour minister during the military government and devised Chile's current pension system—criticized the presidential candidates for their proposals on the issue, calling them "unreserved demagoguery."

In two possible run-off scenarios, Bachelet leads Lavín by 26 points, and Piñera by 21 points.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for if the presidential election took place this Sunday?

	Oct. 2005	Jul. 2005
Michelle Bachelet (CPD)	42%	41%
Joaquín Lavín (UDI)	17%	16%
Sebastián Piñera (RN)	16%	16%
Tomás Hirsch (JP)	7%	2%

Run-off Scenarios

Michelle Bachelet (CPD) 52% - 26% Joaquín Lavín (UDI)
Michelle Bachelet (CPD) 48% - 27% Sebastián Piñera (RN)

Source: Centro de Estudios de la Realidad Contemporánea (CERC)
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Chilean adults, conducted from Oct. 7 to Oct. 17, 2005. Margin of error is 2.3 per cent.