October 27, 2005

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - Evo Morales of the Movement to Socialism (MAS) remains the most popular contender in Bolivia's presidential campaign, according to a poll by Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for indigenous leader in the election.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Evo Morales of the Movement to Socialism (MAS) remains the most popular contender in Bolivia's presidential campaign, according to a poll by Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for indigenous leader in the election.

Former head of state Jorge Quiroga of We Can (Podemos) is second with 28 per cent, followed by Samuel Doria Medina of the National Unity Front (FUN) with 16 per cent.

Support is lower for Michiaki Nagatani of the Nationalist Revolutionary Movement (MNR), Felipe Quispe of the Indigenous Pachakuti Movement (MIP), Gildo Angulo of the New Republican Force (NFR) and Néstor García of the Bolivian Workers Social Union (USTB). Eliseo Rodríguez of the Bolivian Farming Patriotic Front (FREPAB) is also contending.

In June, a series of demonstrations calling for the nationalization of the hydrocarbon industry and constitutional amendments forced the resignation of interim president Carlos Mesa. Former chief justice of the Supreme Court Eduardo Rodríguez became the country's head of state, promising to hold a presidential election before the end of the year.

In July, Rodríguez signed a decree to schedule a presidential and legislative ballot for Dec. 4, following the passage of the electoral timetable by the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. A constituent assembly and a referendum on the current division of powers would take place in July 2006.

On Oct. 22, Quiroga discussed his decision to name television reporter María René Duchén as his running mate, saying, "It's time to get new people involved in politics, particularly women. The country has had 180 years without a woman as president or vice-president, so I think it's important to send this signal."

In accordance with the constitution, lawmakers in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate select the president from the top two finishers in the event no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote.

Polling Data

If these candidates ran for president, which one would you support?

	Oct. 2005	Sept. 2005	Aug. 2005
Evo Morales (MAS)	34%	28%	21%
Jorge Quiroga (Podemos)	28%	22%	22%
Samuel Doria Medina (FUN)	16%	19%	14%
Michiaki Nagatani (MNR)	7%	2%	--
Felipe Quispe (MIP)	2%	1%	--
Gildo Angulo (NFR)	1%	1%	--
Néstor García (USTB)	1%	--

Source: Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado
Methodology: Interviews with 3,800 adult Bolivians in 37 cities, conducted from Oct. 15 to Oct. 20, 2005. Margin of error is 1.6 per cent.