October 04, 2005

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - Former defence minister Michelle Bachelet remains the top presidential hopeful in Chile, according to a poll by Ipsos. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Socialist Party (PS) member in the South American country's election.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Former defence minister Michelle Bachelet remains the top presidential hopeful in Chile, according to a poll by Ipsos. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Socialist Party (PS) member in the South American country's election.

Businessman Sebastián Piñera of National Renewal (RN) is second with 21 per cent, followed by former Santiago mayor Joaquín Lavín of the conservative Independent Democratic Union (UDI) with 16 per cent, and Tomás Hirsch of the leftist Together We Can (JP) with three per cent. Support for Piñera fell by two points since August, while backing for Lavín remained stable.

The Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD)—which includes the PS, the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD)—officially nominated Bachelet on Jul. 31.

Lavín lost the 2000 run-off to current head of state Ricardo Lagos of the CPD by 2.6 per cent. The presidential election is scheduled for Dec. 11. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, the top two finishers will participate in a second round.

Last month, Lavín criticized the current government's record on crime, saying, "I assure you that the country's delinquents would rather vote for Michelle Bachelet, because they know she will be just as lenient as Ricardo Lagos on this matter." The CPD nominee replied, "The tone that a desperate right is trying to set to the campaign is deeply disheartening."

Bachelet is the daughter of an air force general who was executed after opposing dictator Augusto Pinochet in the 1970s. Chile has never had a female head of state. In two possible run-off scenarios, Bachelet leads Piñera by 22 points, and Lavín by 30 points.

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Sept. 2005	Aug. 2005	Jun. 2005
Michelle Bachelet (CPD)	48%	49%	49%
Sebastián Piñera (RN)	21%	23%	18%
Joaquín Lavín (UDI)	16%	16%	21%
Tomás Hirsch (JP)	3%	3%	3%

Run-Off Scenarios

Michelle Bachelet (CPD) 56% - 34% Sebastián Piñera (RN)
Michelle Bachelet (CPD) 60% - 30% Joaquín Lavín (UDI)

Source: Ipsos
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 819 Chilean adults, conducted from Sept. 22 to Sept. 29, 2005. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.