October 04, 2005

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner could win a new term in Argentina's upper house, according to a poll by Analogías. 42.2 per cent of respondents in the Buenos Aires province would support the current first lady in this month's election.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner could win a new term in Argentina's upper house, according to a poll by Analogías. 42.2 per cent of respondents in the Buenos Aires province would support the current first lady in this month's election.

Hilda González de Duhalde—the wife of former president Eduardo Duhalde—is second with 18.1 per cent, followed by Marta Maffei of Alternative for a Republic of Equals (ARI) with 6.1 per cent, former presidential candidate Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 5.2 per cent, and actor Luis Brandoni of the Radical Civic Union (UCR) with 4.7 per cent.

Fernández de Kirchner was first elected to Argentina's Senate in October 2001, representing the Santa Cruz province. The current first lady is seeking a new term in Buenos Aires, home to 36 per cent of the South American nation's eligible voters. Fernández de Kirchner and González de Duhalde are both members of the Peronist Justicialist Party (PJ), but are running on separate tickets. The election is scheduled for Oct. 23.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the election held in April 2003. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

According to existing regulations for senatorial elections, the winning ticket elects two members to the upper house, with the second-place finisher taking a third seat. The poll suggests Fernández de Kirchner and FV running mate José Pampuro would be joined by González de Duhalde in Argentina's upper house.

Yesterday, Fernández de Kirchner urged businessmen to expand their role in Argentina's economic recovery, saying, "We must avoid the social climate that can cause any political or institutional system to implode, as we saw in 2001."

In 2001, a decline in consumer confidence provoked substantial withdrawals from Argentinean banks. By late 2001, amid violent protests and riots, Domingo Cavallo—in his second stint as economy minister—resigned his post. President Fernando de la Rúa quickly followed suit after 25 people died on street demonstrations.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the Buenos Aires province senatorial election?

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (FV)	42.2%
Hilda González de Duhalde (PJ)	18.1%
Martha Maffei (ARI)	6.1%
Ricardo López Murphy (Recrear)	5.2%
Luis Brandoni (UCR)	4.7%
Other	23.7%

Source: Analogías
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,200 Argentine adults in the Buenos Aires province, conducted from Sept. 3 to Sept. 11, 2005. No margin of error was provided.