Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Brazil’s Lula Faces Trouble in Re-election Bid

August 14, 2005

Credit:UN/DPI Photo

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Fewer Brazilians would give a second term to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, according to a poll by Datafolha published in Folha de Sao Paulo. At least 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the current head of state in three potential scenarios.

Lula—a three-time presidential candidate for the Worker's Party (PT)—won the October 2002 election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against Jose Serra of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB). In the first round, Lula received 47 per cent of the vote, while Serra garnered 24 per cent.

The Brazilian government has been the target of criticism after Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) member Roberto Jefferson declared that members of two political organizations—the Liberal Party (PL) and the Progressive Party (PP)—received monthly payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch. Jefferson has so far provided no evidence to back his allegations.

In the first list of possible contenders, 30 per cent of respondents choose Lula, while 27 per cent pick Serra. Anthony Garotinho of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) is third with 10 per cent, followed by former PT member and independent senator Heloisa Helena, Cesar Maia of the Party of the Liberal Front (PFL), and Roberto Freire of the Socialist People's Party (PPS).

In a second list, Lula gets 32 per cent of the vote against the PSDB's Geraldo Alckmin, Garotinho, Helena, Maia and Freire. Lula receives 30 per cent with former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso representing the Social Democrats.

In a prospective run-off pitting Lula against Serra, the incumbent is behind by nine points. In three other scenarios, Lula holds a 10-point advantage over Alckmin, a 14-point lead over Garotinho, and a nine-point advantage over Cardoso.

The next election is tentatively scheduled for October 2006.

Polling Data

If the 2006 presidential election took place today, and the candidates were these, who would you vote for?

(Option 1)

 

Aug. 10

Jul. 22

Jun. 16

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)

30%

34%

33%

Jose Serra (PSDB)

27%

25%

27%

Anthony Garotinho (PMDB)

10%

9%

9%

Heloisa Helena

6%

6%

4%

Cesar Maia (PFL)

4%

4%

5%

Roberto Freire (PPS)

3%

2%

--

Roberto Mangabeira Unger

--

--

1%

Unsure

7%

6%

8%

Blank / Would not vote

13%

13%

13%

(Option 2)

 

Aug. 10

Jul. 22

Jun. 16

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)

32%

36%

36%

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)

17%

16%

12%

Anthony Garotinho (PMDB)

13%

12%

15%

Heloisa Helena

6%

6%

5%

Cesar Maia (PFL)

5%

5%

7%

Roberto Freire (PPS)

2%

2%

--

Roberto Mangabeira Unger

--

--

1%

Unsure

8%

8%

8%

Blank / Would not vote

17%

16%

16%

(Option 3)

 

Aug. 10

Jul. 22

Jun. 16

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)

30%

35%

35%

Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PDSB)

16%

15%

16%

Anthony Garotinho (PMDB)

12%

10%

11%

Heloisa Helena

7%

6%

6%

Cesar Maia (PFL)

6%

6%

5%

Roberto Freire (PPS)

3%

2%

--

Roberto Mangabeira Unger

1%

--

1%

Unsure

7%

8%

8%

Blank / Would not vote

17%

17%

17%

Run-Off Scenarios

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) 39% - 48% Jose Serra (PSDB)
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) 45% - 35% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) 46% - 32% Anthony Garotinho (PMDB)
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) 45% - 36% Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PDSB)

Source: Datafolha / Folha de Sao Paulo
Methodology: Interviews to 2,551 Brazilian adults, conducted on Aug. 10, 2005. Margin of error is 2 per cent.

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