August 08, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in Kazakhstan will not participate in this month's legislative ballot, according to a poll by the Association of Sociologists and Political Scientists. 52.5 per cent of respondents say they will not vote in the election, while 47.5 per cent say they will.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in Kazakhstan will not participate in this month's legislative ballot, according to a poll by the Association of Sociologists and Political Scientists. 52.5 per cent of respondents say they will not vote in the election, while 47.5 per cent say they will.

Among those who will abstain from voting, 27.6 per cent believe the election will not directly affect their lives, 24.9 per cent say they do not usually vote, and 15.2 per cent do not trust the election to be free and fair.

The former Soviet Republic became independent in 1991. Since then, Nursultan Nazarbayev—who first gained prominence as the area's first secretary of the Communist Party—has dominated Kazakhstan's political life. Nazarbayev has been the country's only head of state, passing a referendum in 1995 that was designed to extend his tenure.

On Jun. 20, Nazarbayev dissolved the Assembly and scheduled an early election for Aug. 18. The ballot is needed to allow recently adopted constitutional reforms to take effect. These amendments effectively increase the number of seats in the Assembly from 77 to 107. In all, 98 lawmakers will be elected through proportional representation party lists with a seven per cent threshold, and nine seats will be reserved for the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan—a group representing ethnic minorities.

The new Assembly will have a say in the designation of the prime minister, and political parties will be able—for the first time—to nominate officials to the Central Election Commission. In addition, one of the changes also allows Nazarbayev to run for president indefinitely.

Erlan Idrissov, the new Kazakh ambassador to the United States, has invited American politicians and academics to join an international group that will monitor the election. On Jul. 20, Tom Malinowski, of Human Rights Watch, deemed the ambassador's efforts a public relations strategy, adding, "Kazakhstan is obviously more interested in manipulating the image of its elections than it is in actually improving them."

The September 2004 legislative election and the December 2005 presidential ballot in Kazakhstan were criticized by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), for the "arbitrary, selective and non-transparent" behaviour of the Central Election Commission, and the "limited possibility for a meaningful competition."

Polling Data

Will you vote in the upcoming legislative election?

Yes	47.5%
No	52.5%

Reasons provided for not voting
(Several answers allowed)

The election is not going to have any immediate effect on my life	27.6%
I do not usually vote	24.9%
I do not trust the election to be free and fair	15.2%
I have other plans	11.8%
I do not see a single deserving party	10.1%
My boycott is actually a protest	6.0%

Source: Association of Sociologists and Political Scientists
Methodology: Interviews to 2,416 Kazakh voters in 17 cities, conducted from Jul. 5 to Jul. 10, 2007. No margin of error was provided.