August 02, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom is holding on to the lead in Guatemala's presidential race, according to a poll by Borge y Asociados published in El Periódico. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the left-wing National Union of Hope (UNE) candidate in next month's election, up five points since June.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom is holding on to the lead in Guatemala's presidential race, according to a poll by Borge y Asociados published in El Periódico. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the left-wing National Union of Hope (UNE) candidate in next month's election, up five points since June.

Otto Pérez Molina of the right-wing Patriot Party (PP) is second with 23.1 per cent—up 9.9 points since June—followed by Alejandro Giammattei of the Grand National Alliance (GANA) with 8.9 per cent, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Rigoberta Menchú of Encounter for Guatemala (EPG) with 5.5 per cent. Support is lower for Luis Rabbé of the Republican Guatemalan Front (FRG), Mario Estrada of the Union for Nationalist Change (UCN), and Fritz García Gallont of the Unionist Party (PU).

In three different scenarios for a run-off vote, Colom would beat Pérez Molina with 52.2 per cent, Giammattei with 59 per cent, and Menchú with 63.9 per cent.

GANA candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.

Last month, the three main presidential contenders expressed dissatisfaction with the way the country is dealing with drug trafficking, after a report issued by the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) stated that 80 per cent of the cocaine destined for the U.S. passes through Guatemala. Colom declared: "I have seen caravans with an army of drug dealers—we are Colombia already."

The presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Jul. 2007	Jun. 2007	May 2007
Álvaro Colom (UNE)	33.0%	28.0%	25.9%
Otto Pérez Molina (PP)	23.1%	13.2%	15.3%
Alejandro Giammattei (GANA)	8.9%	5.8%	5.6%
Rigoberta Menchú (EPG)	5.5%	6.7%	6.2%
Luis Rabbé (FRG)	3.8%	3.2%	--
Mario Estrada (UCN)	2.1%	1.3%	--
Fritz García Gallont (PU)	2.1%	0.9%	--
Harold Caballeros (VIVA)	n.a.	2.5%	--
Other / Undecided	21.5%	38.4%	47.0%

Run-off Scenarios

Álvaro Colom (UNE) 52.2% - 38.0% Otto Pérez Molina (PP)
Álvaro Colom (UNE) 59.0% - 24.9% Alejandro Giammattei (GANA)
Álvaro Colom (UNE) 63.9% - 17.1% Rigoberta Menchú (EPG)

Source: Borge y Asociados / El Periódico
Methodology: Interviews to 1,008 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Jul. 13 to Jul. 22, 2007. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.