Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Many Still Undecided in Guatemala’s Election

August 01, 2007
Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - With only about a fifth of Guatemalans supporting him, Álvaro Colom is the leader in the race for the country's presidency, according to a poll by Vox Latina published in Prensa Libre. 21.33 per cent of respondents would vote for the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE) candidate in this year's election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - With only about a fifth of Guatemalans supporting him, Álvaro Colom is the leader in the race for the country's presidency, according to a poll by Vox Latina published in Prensa Libre. 21.33 per cent of respondents would vote for the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE) candidate in this year's election.

Otto Pérez Molina of the right-wing Patriot Party (PP) is second with 14.42 per cent, followed by Alejandro Giammattei of the Grand National Alliance (GANA) with 8.17 per cent. Support is lower for Eduardo Suger of Centre for Social Action (CAS), and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Rigoberta Menchú of Encounter for Guatemala (EPG). Almost two-in-five respondents remain undecided.

GANA candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.

On Jul. 20, Pérez Molina, a retired army general and former spy chief, said he would increase the number of soldiers in Guatemala's streets in order to improve public safety. The PP candidate declared: "Until we can get out of this security crisis and strengthen the police, we have to use the army."

The presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

Jul. 2007

Jun. 2007

May 2007

Álvaro Colom (UNE)

21.33%

20.75%

20.6%

Otto Pérez Molina (PP)

14.42%

12.25%

11.1%

Alejandro Giammattei (GANA)

8.17%

8.17%

7.1%

Eduardo Suger (CAS)

2.50%

n.a.

n.a.

Rigoberta Menchú (EPG)

2.42%

1.50%

2.9%

Harold Caballeros (VIVA)

n.a.

1.92%

2.2%

Other / Would not vote

13.24%

14.99%

13.6%

Undecided

37.92%

40.42%

42.5%

Source: Vox Latina / Prensa Libre
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Jul. 11 to Jul. 20, 2007. Margin of error is 4.1 per cent.