(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom is the frontrunner in Guatemala's presidential race, according to a poll by Demoscopía published in Siglo XXI. 37.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE) in this year's ballot, down 1.2 points since June.

Otto Pérez Molina of the right-wing Patriot Party (PP) is second with 20.4 per cent, followed by Alejandro Giammattei of the Grand National Alliance (GANA) with 12.1 per cent. Support is lower for Nobel Peace Prize laureate Rigoberta Menchú of Encounter for Guatemala (EPG), and Harold Caballeros of Vision with Values (VIVA).

GANA candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.

Earlier this month, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced that VIVA would not take part in the democratic process, due to a discrepancy over the timing of its candidate-selection process. Caballeros filed two unsuccessful appeals to the TSE's decision.

In mid-July, José Carlos Marroquín, the spokesman for Colom, talked to reporters about the possible infiltration of drug lords in different parties ahead of the general election, and said UNE has made efforts to fire members with purported ties to organized crime. Marroquín also said his two cars were bombed and riddled with bullets in front of his house in Guatemala City last year, adding, "I'm scared. It's going to be a very bloody election."

The presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4.

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