July 08, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's popularity has grown since the beginning of this year, according to a poll by Ipsos Mora y Araujo published in El Clarín. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the Front for Victory (FV) in this year's presidential election, up eight points since January.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's popularity has grown since the beginning of this year, according to a poll by Ipsos Mora y Araujo published in El Clarín. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the Front for Victory (FV) in this year's presidential election, up eight points since January.

Former economy minister Roberto Lavagna is a distant second with 10 per cent, followed by Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) with nine per cent, Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with four per cent, and former president Carlos Menem also with four per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to Menem in the election held in April 2003. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the FV.

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

On Jul. 2, Fernández de Kirchner announced she would run to succeed her husband later this year. She will officially launch her candidacy at a rally in La Plata on Jul. 19.

On Jul. 3, Argentinean senator Gerardo Morales—the vice-presidential contender on Lavagna's ticket—said Fernández de Kirchner's candidacy is beneficial, adding, "It is clear Cristina is the weaker candidate."

The next presidential election in Argentina is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Jun. 2007	Jan. 2007
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner	45%	37%
Roberto Lavagna	10%	6%
Elisa Carrió	9%	6%
Ricardo López Murphy	4%	--
Carlos Menem	4%	3%
Other	4%	18%
Not sure / No reply	15%	21%

Source: Ipsos Mora y Araujo / El Clarín
Methodology: Interviews to 1,200 Argentine adults, conducted from Jun. 8 to Jun. 20, 2007. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.