Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Cristina Kirchner Leads All in Argentina

July 07, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The wife of current Argentinean president Néstor Kirchner is leading all other presidential candidates in the country, according to a poll by Analogías. 46.2 per cent of respondents would vote for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in this year's ballot, down 5.5 points since February.

Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) is second with 12 per cent, followed by former economy minister Roberto Lavagna with 11.1 per cent, Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 4.1 per cent, and former president Carlos Menem with 3.7 per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to Menem in the election held in April 2003. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

On Jul. 2, Fernández de Kirchner announced she would run to succeed her husband later this year. Current president Kirchner expressed his public support for his wife's s bid in a public speech, saying, "I deeply believe in Cristina's capacity of transformation. (...) I trust in the people's good memory and I know that on Oct. 28 the ballot boxes will be full of good memory."

The next presidential election in Argentina is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

Jun. 2007

Feb. 2007

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

46.2%

51.7%

Elisa Carrió

12.0%

13.9%

Roberto Lavagna

11.1%

13.0%

Ricardo López Murphy

4.1%

5.6%

Carlos Menem

3.7%

4.0%

Source: Analogías
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,200 Argentine adults, conducted in June 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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