Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Cristina Kirchner Could Win in Argentina

July 06, 2007
Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is the frontrunner in Argentina's presidential election, according to a poll by CEOP. 46 per cent of respondents would back the candidate of the Front for Victory (FV) and wife of current president Néstor Kirchner in this year's ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is the frontrunner in Argentina's presidential election, according to a poll by CEOP. 46 per cent of respondents would back the candidate of the Front for Victory (FV) and wife of current president Néstor Kirchner in this year's ballot.

Former economy minister Roberto Lavagna is a distant second with 12.4 per cent, followed by Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) with 11.3 per cent, Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 5.5 per cent, former president Carlos Menem with 2.7 per cent, and Neuquen governor Jorge Sobisch with 0.8 per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to Menem in the election held in April 2003. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the FV.

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

On Jul. 2, Fernández de Kirchner announced she would run to succeed her husband later this year. The president launched a campaign on her behalf two days later, saying, "In Argentina, the deepening of change will come about by the hand of a woman who, I know without a doubt, is going to undertake a much better government than the one we've had up until now."

The next presidential election in Argentina is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

46.0%

Roberto Lavagna

12.4%

Elisa Carrió

11.3%

Ricardo López Murphy

5.5%

Carlos Menem

2.7%

Jorge Sobisch

0.8%

Source: CEOP
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,000 Argentine adults, conducted in June 2007. Margin of error is 2 per cent.