June 30, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - A former defence minister is the early frontrunner in Russia's presidential race, according to a poll by Yury Levada Analytical Center. 31 per cent of respondents would vote for Sergei Ivanov in the 2008 election, unchanged since May.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - A former defence minister is the early frontrunner in Russia's presidential race, according to a poll by Yury Levada Analytical Center. 31 per cent of respondents would vote for Sergei Ivanov in the 2008 election, unchanged since May.

Deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev is second with 27 per cent—down seven points in a month—followed by Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky with 14 per cent, and Communist Party (KPRF) leader Gennady Zyuganov. Any "liberal candidate" would be backed by seven per cent of respondents. Support is lower for Sergei Glazyev of For a Dignified Life, and former Motherland - National Patriotic Union (MDRT) leader Dmitri Rogozin.

Vladimir Putin was elected to a second term as Russia's president in March 2004 with 71.31 per cent of all cast ballots. In June 2006, Central Election Commission (CEC) chairman Alexander Veshnyakov confirmed that there are "no legal bans" for a Putin candidacy in 2012.

Medvedev has served as deputy prime minister since November 2005, and Ivanov was appointed to the same position—and relieved of his duties as defence minister—in February. Both have been identified as the Kremlin's main contenders in the election. In a prospective run-off scenario, Ivanov holds a 10-point advantage over Medvedev.

On Jun. 26, Ivanov announced Russia has started the mass production of new intercontinental ballistic missiles, declaring, "We are now moving on to a new and very important rearmament stage for both our nuclear strategic forces and our tactical complexes."

The next presidential election is tentatively scheduled for March 2008.

Polling Data

If the following candidates participated in the 2008 presidential election, who would you vote for?
(Likely voters)

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Apr. 2007
Sergei Ivanov	31%	31%	31%
Dmitry Medvedev	27%	34%	29%
Vladimir Zhirinovsky	14%	13%	11%
Gennady Zyuganov	14%	12%	17%
"A liberal candidate"	7%	6%	6%
Sergei Glazyev	5%	3%	5%
Dmitri Rogozin	2%	2%	2%

If Medveded and Ivanov reached a run-off, who would you vote for?

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Apr. 2007
Sergei Ivanov	55%	49%	55%
Dmitry Medvedev	45%	51%	46%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center
Methodology: Interviews to 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Jun. 15 to Jun. 18, 2007. No margin of error was provided.