June 01, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - France's governing centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) keeps gaining public backing as the legislative election draws near, according to a poll by Ifop released by Paris Match. 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the UMP in this month's National Assembly ballot, up four points since early May.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - France's governing centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) keeps gaining public backing as the legislative election draws near, according to a poll by Ifop released by Paris Match. 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the UMP in this month's National Assembly ballot, up four points since early May.

In addition, 27.5 per cent of respondents would support the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), the Left Radical Party (PRG), or the Citizen's Republican Movement (MRC). The Democratic Movement (MD) is third with 12 per cent, followed by the far-right National Front (FN) with six per cent. Support is lower for the Greens (Verts), the French Communist Party (PCF), Workers' Struggle (LO) and the Revolutionary Communist League (LCR), and the Movement for France (MPF).

In the 2002 election to the National Assembly, the UMP received 33.3 per cent of the vote and secured 357 seats in the 577-member lower house. The PS was second, with 24.1 per cent and 141 mandates. The next election is scheduled for Jun. 10 and Jun. 17.

On May 6, UMP candidate and former interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidential run-off with 53.06 per cent of the vote. Sarkozy was sworn in on May 16.

On May 29, defeated PS presidential candidate Ségolène Royal appeared in public for the first time since the day of the run-off. Royal said she would lead her party into a good performance in the legislative election, saying, "We will construct the new opposition that France needs." The former candidate declined to comment on what role she will play within the PS after the ballot.

Polling Data

If the first round of the legislative election took place this Sunday, which party's candidate would you support in your district?

	May 25	May 11
Union for a Popular Movement (UMP)	41%	37%
Socialist Party (PS), Left Radical Party (PRG) or Citizens' Republican Movement (MRC)	27.5%	28%
Democratic Movement (MD)	12%	14%
National Front (FN)	6%	7%
The Greens (Les Verts)	4%	4%
French Communist Party (PCF)	3.5%	4%
Workers' Struggle (LO) or Revolutionary Communist League (LCR)	3%	3%
Movement for France (MPF)	2%	2%
Other candidate	1%	1%

Source: Ifop / Paris Match
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 931 French registered voters, conducted on May 24 and May 25, 2007. No margin of error was provided.