May 11, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Very few people in Thailand's capital would welcome Thaksin Shinawatra's return to the country, according to a poll by ABAC. Only 16 per cent of respondents in Bangkok think the deposed prime minister should go back immediately to help solve problems, such as the current the economic slowdown.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Very few people in Thailand's capital would welcome Thaksin Shinawatra's return to the country, according to a poll by ABAC. Only 16 per cent of respondents in Bangkok think the deposed prime minister should go back immediately to help solve problems, such as the current the economic slowdown.

Conversely, 24 per cent of respondents believe Thaksin should not return because this could spark episodes of violence in the unstable nation, while 23 per cent think the deposed prime minister should wait at least a couple of years before considering going back to his country.

In April 2006, a general election was held after Thai Love Thais Party - Phak Thai Rak Thai (TRT) leader Thaksin decided to dissolve the House of Representatives. The prime minister faced a series of public demonstrations after the Shinawatra and Dhamapong families sold their combined 49.6 per cent shares in the SHIN telecommunications empire to Singapore's Temasek Holdings, in a transaction estimated at $1.88 billion U.S.

In May 2006, Thailand's Constitutional Court ruled, in an 8-6 decision, that the April general election was unconstitutional. In September, the Thai Armed Forces enacted a military coup. The group declared martial law, suspended the constitution, affirmed their loyalty to the King, and released a statement, which read: "We ask for the cooperation of the public and ask your pardon for the inconvenience." Surayud Chulanont was later appointed as the new head of government.

On Mar. 29, Surayud announced that the election to the House of Representatives would take place either on Dec. 16 or Dec. 22. Thaksin was out of the country during the coup, and has not returned since.

On May 7, Kaewsan Atipho, chairman of the Assets Examination Committee (AEC)—a panel of anti-corruption experts instituted by the military junta after the coup—said Thaksin faces up to 15 years in prison if the authorities manage to prove that he maintained control of SHIN after he became prime minister. Kaewsan announced the start of a new investigation into this matter, adding, "If Thaksin made the faux transfer of shares, he will be penalized under Article 100 of the National Counter Corruption Commission Act."

Polling Data

Should former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra return to Thailand?

No, because peace has not been achieved in the country and his return could spark further divisions among the people	24%
Thaksin should wait for up to two years after a general election to be held in December before returning	23%
Thaksin should return immediately to help solve problems, such as the current the economic slowdown	16%

Source: Assumption University of Thailand (ABAC)
Methodology: Interviews with 2,979 Thai adults in Bangkok, conducted from May 1 to May 4, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.