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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
All Polls Point to Sarkozy Win in France
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) is expected to win tomorrow's presidential run-off in France, according to four voting intention polls. In a survey by BVA released by Orange, Sarkozy is ahead with 55 per cent, and Socialist Party (PS) candidate Ségolène Royal trails with 45 per cent.
In a study by TNS-Sofres released by Unilog, Sarkozy holds a nine-point advantage over Royal. Support for the UMP contender reaches 54 per cent in a tracking poll by Ipsos released by SFR and Le Point, and 53 per cent in a survey by CSA published in Le Parisien.
First round voting took place on Apr. 22. Final results put Sarkozy in first place with 31.18 per cent, followed by Royal with 25.87 per cent, Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 18.57 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 10.44 per cent. Since no candidate garnered more than 50 per cent of the vote, a run-off featuring the top two vote-getters will take place on May 6.
Yesterday, the two candidates closed their campaigns. Sarkozy vowed to bring people together "without hatred" in a "wide-ranging coalition." Royal urged voters to vote for a woman, and asked sympathizers to channel their "positive energy" to convince "the ones who are still hesitating."
The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002.
Polling Data
a) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
May 4 | Apr. 30 | Apr. 24 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 55% | 52% | 53% |
Ségolène Royal | 45% | 48% | 47% |
Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 807 registered French voters, conducted on May 4, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
b) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
May 3 | Apr. 27 | Apr. 24 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 54.5% | 52% | 51% |
Ségolène Royal | 45.5% | 48% | 49% |
Source: TNS-Sofres / Unilog
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 French adults, conducted on May 3, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
c) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
May 3 | May 2 | May 1 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 54% | 53.5% | 53.5% |
Ségolène Royal | 46% | 46.5% | 46.5% |
Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,414 French adults, conducted on May 2 and May 3, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
d) Among the following candidates, who are you most likely to vote for in the first round of the presidential election?
May. 3 | Apr. 22 | Apr. 20 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 53% | 53.5% | 50% |
Ségolène Royal | 47% | 46.5% | 50% |
Source: CSA / Le Parisien
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,005 French adults, conducted on May 3, 2007. No margin of error was provided.