Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Sarkozy Leads Royal in French Second Round

May 03, 2007
Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) is holding on to the top position before this Sunday's second round of France's presidential election, according to two recent voting intention polls.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) is holding on to the top position before this Sunday's second round of France's presidential election, according to two recent voting intention polls.

In a survey by BVA released by Orange, Sarkozy is ahead with 52 per cent, and Socialist Party (PS) candidate Ségolène Royal trails with 48 per cent. In a tracking study by Ipsos released by SFR and Le Point, Sarkozy holds a seven-point lead over Royal.

First round voting took place on Apr. 22. Final results put Sarkozy in first place with 31.18 per cent, followed by Royal with 25.87 per cent, Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 18.57 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 10.44 per cent. Since no candidate garnered more than 50 per cent of the vote, a run-off featuring the top two vote-getters will take place on May 6.

Yesterday, the two candidates participated in a televised debate. Sarkozy outlined his program, saying, "I will take on commitments, keep my word, and be judged for it. Every minister will be accountable, and the opposition will be able to veto specific presidential decisions." Royal focused on job creation, declaring, "I believe French people do not work because they are unemployed. I propose to create 500,000 new jobs that will help young people to avoid staying on employment insurance for more than six months."

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002.

Polling Data

a) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Apr. 30

Apr. 24

Apr. 22

Nicolas Sarkozy

52%

53%

52%

Ségolène Royal

48%

47%

48%

Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 805 registered French voters, conducted on Apr. 30, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

b) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

May 1

Apr. 30

Apr. 27

Nicolas Sarkozy

53.5%

53%

53%

Ségolène Royal

46.5%

47%

47%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 808 French adults, conducted on Apr. 30 and May 1, 2007. No margin of error was provided.