April 24, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) could win the second round of France's presidential election next month, according to five voting intention polls conducted after the results of the first round were released.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) could win the second round of France's presidential election next month, according to five voting intention polls conducted after the results of the first round were released.

In surveys by Ifop, Ipsos and LH2, Sarkozy is ahead with 54 per cent, and Socialist Party candidate Ségolène Royal trails with 46 per cent. In addition, Sarkozy holds a seven-point edge over Royal in a study by CSA, and a four-point edge in a poll by BVA.

First round voting took place on Apr. 22. Final results put Sarkozy in first place with 31.18 per cent, followed by Royal with 25.87 per cent, Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 18.57 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 10.44 per cent. Since no candidate garnered more than 50 per cent of the vote, a run-off featuring the top two vote-getters will take place on May 6.

On Apr. 22, Bayrou refused to endorse either contender in the run-off, adding, "I have good news for you. This evening French politics changed, and it will never be the same. There is at last a centre in France—a broad centre, a strong centre, an independent centre, able to unite and act beyond the divides of the past. More than seven million French people united to carry a magnificent idea of change."

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002.

Polling Data

a) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 19	Apr. 16
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	51%	53%
Ségolène Royal	46%	49%	47%

Source: Ifop / Fiducial
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,010 French registered voters, conducted on the night of Apr. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

b) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 20	Apr. 19
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	53.5%	53.5%
Ségolène Royal	46%	46.5%	46.5%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,598 French adults, conducted on the night of Apr. 22 2007. No margin of error was provided.

c) Which candidate would you support in the second round of the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 15	Apr. 7
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	51%	52%
Ségolène Royal	46%	49%	48%

Source: LH2 / RMC
Methodology: Interviews with 1,537 French adults, conducted on the night of Apr. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

d) Among the following candidates, who are you most likely to vote for in the first round of the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 20	Apr. 19
Nicolas Sarkozy	53.5%	50%	50%
Ségolène Royal	46.5%	50%	50%

Source: CSA / Le Parisien
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,005 French adults, conducted on the night of Apr. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

e) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 17	Apr. 3
Nicolas Sarkozy	52%	53%	54%
Ségolène Royal	48%	47%	46%

Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 825 registered French voters, conducted on the night of Apr. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.