April 10, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy remains the top contender in France, according to a poll by Ifop published in Le Journal du Dimanche. 29.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in this month's election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy remains the top contender in France, according to a poll by Ifop published in Le Journal du Dimanche. 29.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in this month's election.

Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 22 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 19 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 14 per cent.

Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), farmer-activist José Bové, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, and Gérard Schivardi of the Worker's Party (PT).

Sarkozy served as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds an eight-point advantage over Royal.

On Apr. 8, Le Pen defended his controversial remarks on sex education, saying, "When they asked me, whether I agreed with the distribution of condoms to young secondary school children, I said listen (...) they could always use the 'manu militari' method. It's much less dangerous than using condoms."

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 6	Mar. 28	Mar. 23
Nicolas Sarkozy	29.5%	28%	26%
Ségolène Royal	22%	23%	25%
François Bayrou	19%	21%	22%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	14%	13.5%	14.5%
Olivier Besancenot	4.5%	3.5%	3.5%
Marie-George Buffet	2.5%	2.5%	2%
Arlette Laguiller	2%	2%	2%
José Bové	2%	1.5%	1%
Dominique Voynet	1.5%	1%	1%
Frédéric Nihous	1.5%	1%	0.5%
Philippe de Villiers	1%	2.5%	2%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenario

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Apr. 6	Mar. 28	Mar. 23
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	54%	52%
Ségolène Royal	46%	46%	48%

Source: Ifop / Le Journal du Dimanche
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 953 French registered voters, conducted on Apr. 5 and Apr. 6, 2007. No margin of error was provided.