April 02, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy remains the most popular presidential candidate in France, according to a poll by CSA released by Le Parisien. 26 per cent of respondents would support the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in this month's ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy remains the most popular presidential candidate in France, according to a poll by CSA released by Le Parisien. 26 per cent of respondents would support the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in this month's ballot.

Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 24.5 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 19.5 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 15 per cent.

Support is lower for Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), farmer-activist José Bové, Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), and Gérard Schivardi of the Worker's Party (PT).

Sarkozy served as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a four-point advantage over Royal.

On Mar. 27, a police officer arrested an illegal immigrant at Paris' Gare du Nord station, after he allegedly refused to show his ticket. The officers claim the 33-year-old man "attacked staff", while witnesses declared he was "manhandled."

On Mar. 28, the FN released a statement, which read: "The repetition of riots point to the failure of the supposed 'security policy' of Sarkozy. The situation is the direct consequence of the massive and insane immigration policy conducted by successive governments over the past 30 years."

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.

Polling Data

Among the following candidates, who are you most likely to vote for in the first round of the presidential election?

	Mar. 29	Mar. 22	Mar. 14
Nicolas Sarkozy	26%	26%	27%
Ségolène Royal	24.5%	26%	26%
François Bayrou	19.5%	21%	21%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	15%	13%	14%
Marie-George Buffet	4%	3%	2%
Olivier Besancenot	3%	3.5%	2%
Arlette Laguiller	2%	2%	2%
José Bové	2%	2%	2%
Philippe de Villiers	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1%	1%
Frédéric Nihous	1%	0.5%	0.5%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenario

	Mar. 29	Mar. 22	Mar. 14
Nicolas Sarkozy	52%	50%	53%
Ségolène Royal	48%	50%	47%

Source: CSA / Le Parisien
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 922 French adults, conducted on Mar. 28 and Mar. 29, 2007. No margin of error was provided.