March 26, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy is holding on to the top position in the French presidential race, according to a tracking poll by Ipsos released by SFR and Le Point. 30 per cent of respondents would support the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in next month's election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy is holding on to the top position in the French presidential race, according to a tracking poll by Ipsos released by SFR and Le Point. 30 per cent of respondents would support the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in next month's election.

Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 25.5 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 19 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 13.5 per cent.

Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), farmer-activist José Bové, Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), and Gérard Schivardi of the Worker's Party (PT).

Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a six-point advantage over Royal. In addition, Bayrou leads Sarkozy by six points.

Yesterday, excerpts from a book written by Royal, which details her life and views, were released by several media outlets. The PS candidate writes: "I was born into a right-wing milieu. I do not share (the right's) social pessimism, its respect for the established disorder, its veneration for laissez-faire economics. It was in leftist politics that I discovered the desire for emancipation and fraternity."

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Mar. 24	Mar. 17	Mar. 14
Nicolas Sarkozy	30%	29.5%	28.5%
Ségolène Royal	25.5%	25%	24%
François Bayrou	19%	21%	23%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	13.5%	12.5%	13.5%
Olivier Besancenot	3%	3.5%	3%
Marie-George Buffet	2%	2%	2.5%
Arlette Laguiller	2%	2%	2%
José Bové	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Philippe de Villiers	1%	1.5%	0.5%
Dominique Voynet	1%	0.5%	1%
Frédéric Nihous	1%	0.5%	0.5%
Gérardi Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	--

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Mar. 24	Mar. 17	Mar. 14
Nicolas Sarkozy	53%	52%	53%
Ségolène Royal	47%	48%	47%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou

	Mar. 24
François Bayrou	53%
Nicolas Sarkozy	47%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,245 French adults, conducted from Mar. 22 to Mar. 24, 2007. No margin of error was provided.