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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Sarkozy Up, Bayrou Down in French Race
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy remains the frontrunner in France's presidential election, according to a poll by BVA released by Orange. 31 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) contender in next month's ballot.
Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 24 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 17 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 13 per cent.
Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, farmer-activist José Bové, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), and Gérard Schivardi of the Worker's Party (PT).
Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds an eight-point advantage over Royal.
On March 19, Royal said she would call for a referendum in September to overhaul France's institutions if she were elected president. Royal said she would like to form the "sixth republic" by granting more powers to legislators and the prime minister, adding, "We will make this new republic, of which you will be the actors and avant-garde, a success."
The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
Mar. 20 | Mar. 13 | Mar. 6 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 31% | 29% | 29% |
Ségolène Royal | 24% | 23% | 24% |
François Bayrou | 17% | 21% | 21% |
Jean-Marie Le Pen | 13% | 13% | 13% |
Olivier Besancenot | 4% | 3% | 3% |
Marie-George Buffet | 4% | 3% | 3% |
Arlette Laguiller | 2% | 2% | 3% |
Philippe de Villiers | 1% | 2% | 1% |
José Bové | 2% | 2% | 1% |
Dominique Voynet | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Frédéric Nihous | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Gérard Schivardi | 0.5% | 0.5% | -- |
Corinne Lepage | n.a. | n.a. | 0.5% |
Run-Off Scenarios
Sarkozy v. Royal
Mar. 20 | Mar. 13 | Mar. 6 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 54% | 51% | 53% |
Ségolène Royal | 46% | 49% | 47% |
Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 957 registered French voters, conducted on Mar. 19 and Mar. 20, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
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