March 12, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular French presidential candidate, according to a poll by BVA released by Orange. 29 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) contender in next month's ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular French presidential candidate, according to a poll by BVA released by Orange. 29 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) contender in next month's ballot.

Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 24 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 21 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 13 per cent.

Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, farmer-activist José Bové, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Corinne Lepage of Citizenship, Action, Participation for the 21st Century, and Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT).

Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a six-point advantage over Royal. In addition, Bayrou leads Sarkozy by 10 points.

On Mar. 8, former finance minister and PS member Dominique Strauss-Kahn criticized the UDF candidate in an editorial, saying, "Bayrou's idea of national unity would do little except play into the hands of extremism."

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Mar. 6	Feb. 27	Feb. 20
Nicolas Sarkozy	29%	31%	33%
Ségolène Royal	24%	25%	26%
François Bayrou	21%	17%	15%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	13%	14%	10%
Olivier Besancenot	3%	5%	3%
Marie-George Buffet	3%	3%	4%
Arlette Laguiller	3%	2%	3%
Philippe de Villiers	1%	1%	3%
José Bové	1%	1%	2%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1%	1%
Corinne Lepage	0.5%	--	--
Frédéric Nihous	0.5%	--	--

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Mar. 6	Feb. 27	Feb. 20
Nicolas Sarkozy	53%	53%	52%
Ségolène Royal	47%	47%	48%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou

	Mar. 6	Feb. 27	Feb. 20
François Bayrou	55%	54%	54%
Nicolas Sarkozy	45%	46%	46%

Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 953 registered French voters, conducted on Mar. 5 and Mar. 6, 2007. No margin of error was provided.