Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Either Kirchner Would Win in Argentina

March 12, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Néstor Kirchner remains the overwhelming favourite in Argentina's presidential election, according to a poll by Analogías. 61.3 per cent of respondents would vote for the current head of state in this year's ballot.

Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) is a distant second with 11.7 per cent, followed by former economy minister Roberto Lavagna with 8.7 per cent, Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 4.4 per cent, former president Carlos Menem with three per cent, and Neuquen governor Jorge Sobisch with 2.5 per cent.

Kirchner finished second to Menem in the election held in April 2003. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

A separate sample places first lady and Buenos Aires senator Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in first place with 51.7 per cent. Support for the five remaining candidates stands below the 14 per cent mark.

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

Yesterday, Menem criticized Kirchner, declaring, "When he served as governor, Kirchner placed me as one of the best presidents of all time. He was staunchly pro-Menem. (...) His permanent attacks against my government's work show a great level of resentment."

The next presidential election in Argentina is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

Option 1

Néstor Kirchner

61.3%

Elisa Carrió

11.7%

Roberto Lavagna

8.7%

Ricardo López Murphy

4.4%

Carlos Menem

3.0%

Jorge Sobisch

2.5%

Option 2

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

51.7%

Elisa Carrió

13.9%

Roberto Lavagna

13.0%

Ricardo López Murphy

5.6%

Carlos Menem

4.0%

Jorge Sobisch

2.6%

Source: Analogías
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,200 Argentine adults, conducted in February 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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