February 26, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for Nicolas Sarkozy increased in France, according to a poll by Louis-Harris released by RMC. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in this year's presidential election, up two points in a week.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for Nicolas Sarkozy increased in France, according to a poll by Louis-Harris released by RMC. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in this year's presidential election, up two points in a week.

Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 25 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 14 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 13 per cent.

Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), farmer-activist José Bové, Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), Corinne Lepage of Citizenship, Action, Participation for the 21st Century, National Assembly member Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, and Gérard Schivardi of the Worker's Party (PT).

Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds an eight-point advantage over Royal.

On Feb. 21, Le Pen expressed his views on the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, declaring, "Three thousand deaths—that is how many die in Iraq in a month and it's far less than the deaths in the Marseille or Dresden bombings at the end of World War II. (...) The September 11 event, or one could say incident, prompted a certain number of people to distance themselves (from Islamic extremism) to avoid falling under the barrage of accusations that was then unleashed."

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.

Polling Data

Which candidate would you support in the first round of the presidential election?

	Feb. 17	Feb. 10	Feb. 3
Nicolas Sarkozy	33%	31%	33%
Ségolène Royal	25%	27%	27%
François Bayrou	14%	13%	13%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	13%	12%	9%
Marie-George Buffet	3.5%	3%	3%
Olivier Besancenot	3.5%	3%	3%
Arlette Laguiller	2%	3%	3%
Philippe de Villiers	2.5%	2.5%	3%
José Bové	2.5%	2%	2.5%
Dominique Voynet	1%	2%	2%
Corinne Lepage	--	1%	0.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	--	0.5%	--
Frédéric Nihous	--	--	1%

Run-Off Scenario

	Feb. 17	Feb. 10	Feb. 3
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	53%	52%
Ségolène Royal	46%	47%	48%

Source: Louis-Harris / RMC
Methodology: Interviews with 1,007 French adults, conducted on Feb. 16 and Feb. 17, 2007. No margin of error was provided.