February 13, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom keeps gaining support in the run for Guatemala's presidency, according to a poll by CID-Gallup. 43 per cent of respondents would back the candidate for the left-wing National Union of Hope (UNE) in this year's election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom keeps gaining support in the run for Guatemala's presidency, according to a poll by CID-Gallup. 43 per cent of respondents would back the candidate for the left-wing National Union of Hope (UNE) in this year's election.

Otto Pérez Molina of the right-wing Patriot Party (PP) is a distant second with 18 per cent. Support is lower for Alejandro Giammattei of the Grand National Alliance (GANA), Fritz García Gallont of the Unionist Party (UP) and evangelical pastor Harold Caballeros.

GANA candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.

On Feb. 12, Colom questioned Pérez Molina's "tough-on-crime" stance, claiming that "a fist can never become an open hand." The UNE candidate also pledged to be a "sensitive" head of state.

The presidential election is tentatively scheduled for Sept. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for if the presidential election took place today?

	Jan. 2007	Dec. 2006	Jul. 2006
Álvaro Colom (UNE)	43%	40%	32%
Otto Pérez Molina (PP)	18%	13%	8%
Alejandro Giammattei (GANA)	5%	--	--
Fritz García Gallont (PU)	4%	3%	2%
Harold Caballeros	2%	3%	--

Source: CID-Gallup
Methodology: Interviews to 1,236 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Jan. 23 to Jan. 28, 2007. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.