December 15, 2006

Abstract: - Nicolas Sarkozy remains the top contender in France's presidential race, according to a poll by Ipsos published in Le Point. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) member in next year's election.

- Nicolas Sarkozy remains the top contender in France's presidential race, according to a poll by Ipsos published in Le Point. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) member in next year's election.

Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 32 per cent, followed by Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 11.5 per cent, and Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with nine per cent.

Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), former defence and interior minister Jean-Pierre Chevènement—who has since abandoned his bid and endorsed Royal—and Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT).

Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy and Royal are tied with 50 per cent.

Yesterday, Sarkozy discussed Turkey's eventual accession into the European Union (EU), saying, "I am very pleased with the decision proposed by the European Commission, which will be adopted by the heads of government, to finally be firm with Turkey. You know my reluctance on the subject. And I'm happy to see that these ideas are gaining ground."

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22, 2007. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Dec. 9	Dec. 2	Nov. 2006
Nicolas Sarkozy	34%	35%	34%
Ségolène Royal	32%	31%	30%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	11.5%	12.5%	10%
François Bayrou	9%	8%	8%
Olivier Besancenot	4%	3%	4%
Marie-George Buffet	2%	3%	3%
Philippe de Villiers	2%	2.5%	4%
Arlette Laguiller	2%	2%	3%
Dominique Voynet	1.5%	1.5%	2%
Jean-Pierre Chevènement	1%	1%	1.5%
Frédéric Nihous	1%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenario

	Dec. 9	Dec. 2	Nov. 2006
Nicolas Sarkozy	50%	51%	50%
Ségolène Royal	50%	49%	50%

Source: Ipsos / Le Point
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 879 French adults, conducted from Dec. 8 and Dec. 9, 2006. No margin of error was provided.