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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Ecuadorian Race Tight, As Correa Gains
- Álvaro Noboa is holding on to the lead before this month's presidential run-off in Ecuador, according to a poll by Informe Confidencial cited by Goldman Sachs. 52 per cent of decided voters would support the Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) candidate in this month's run-off. Former economy minister Rafael Correa of Alliance Country (AP) is second with 48 per cent.
Since more than 20 per cent of total respondents are either undecided or will cast a blank ballot, the race is too close to call.
In the first round, held on Oct. 15, Noboa garnered 26.8 per cent of the vote, while Correa got 22.8 per cent. Since no contender received more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off was scheduled for Nov. 26.
Last year, public protests against the elected government intensified after the Supreme Court threw out pending charges of corruption and mishandling of funds against former presidents Abdalá Bucaram and Gustavo Noboa. In mid-April, then-president Lucio Gutiérrez instituted a 24-hour state of emergency. The National Congress later voted to oust the head of state and replace him with vice-president Alfredo Palacio.
On Nov. 14, Noboa suggested that Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is actively involved in Correa's campaign, declaring, "My rival has taken off his mask of communist, and receives backing from Chávez. Both Chávez and Correa are holding hands."
Correa claimed Noboa has abused the system in his banana export business, adding, "He keeps exploiting small producers, without paying the official price."
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential run-off?
(Valid votes)
Nov. 2006 | Oct. 2006 | |
Álvaro Noboa (PRIAN) | 52% | 58% |
Rafael Correa (AP) | 48% | 42% |
Source: Informe Confidencial / Goldman Sachs
Methodology: Interviews with 1,300 Ecuadorian adults in 15 provinces, conducted in mid-November 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.