November 12, 2006

Abstract: - Arizona senator John McCain holds a slight edge as the 2008 Republican Party presidential nominee in the United States, according to a poll by Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for McCain, while 47 per cent would support Democratic New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

- Arizona senator John McCain holds a slight edge as the 2008 Republican Party presidential nominee in the United States, according to a poll by Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for McCain, while 47 per cent would support Democratic New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

McCain holds a nine-point lead in a contest against Democratic Illinois senator Barack Obama, and an 18-point edge against Massachusetts senator and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is tied with Rodham Clinton at 47 per cent, leads Obama by nine points, and Kerry by 13 points.

In a survey by Rasmussen Reports, Rodham Clinton trails McCain by five points, but is tied with Giuliani at 46 per cent. A study by McLaughlin & Associates gave both McCain and Giuliani double-digit leads when paired against Rodham Clinton.

In a Nov. 10 interview with ABC News, former George W. Bush adviser Mark McKinnon discussed a possible McCain presidential run, saying, "I think voters said they want independence, they want bipartisanship, and they want a voice of moral authority on Iraq, and John McCain is all three. (...) He's built a base across the country, and unlike 2000, John McCain will run a 50-state strategy."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

a) Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

John McCain (R) 48% - 47% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
John McCain (R) 49% - 40% Barack Obama (D)
John McCain (R) 55% - 37% John Kerry (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 47% - 47% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 50% - 41% Barack Obama (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 53% - 40% John Kerry (D)

Source: Opinion Research Corporation / CNN
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,008 American adults, conducted from Nov. 3 to Nov. 5, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

b) Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

John McCain (R) 48% - 43% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 46% - 46% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted on Nov. 4 and Nov. 5, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

c) Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

John McCain (R) 51% - 35% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 51% - 37% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

Source: McLaughlin & Associates
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 American adults who voted in the 2006 general election on Nov. 7, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.