Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Ortega Leads, Would Need Run-Off in Nicaragua

November 03, 2006

- Former head of state Daniel Ortega heads to this Sunday's presidential election in Nicaragua as the frontrunner, according to a poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate.

Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC) is second with 29 per cent, followed by Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) with 18 per cent, José Rizo of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) with 17 per cent, and Edén Pastora of Christian Alternative (AC) with one per cent.

In 2001, the PLC's Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The PLC and the FSLN have traditionally been the dominant parties in the Central American country's political scene. Montealegre once belonged to the PLC, and the MRS was assembled by former FSLN members.

In March 2005, the FSLN officially designated Ortega as its presidential nominee. Ortega governed from 1985 to 1990, but was a losing candidate in the 1990, 1996 and 2001 ballots.

Yesterday, Ortega held his final campaign event in Managua, and declared, "Our rivals, who have launched these dirty campaigns and tried to smear us must be sure that once we're in government, we will not respond in the same fashion."

The Nicaraguan presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 5. In the event no presidential contender receives 40 per cent of all cast ballots, the first place finisher can only avoid a run-off by reaching the 35 per cent mark and holding a five-point advantage over the closest rival.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Daniel Ortega (FSLN)

33%

Eduardo Montealegre (ALN)

29%

Edmundo Jarquín (MRS)

18%

José Rizo (PLC)

17%

Edén Pastora (AC)

1%

Source: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 726 likely Nicaraguan voters, conducted from Oct. 12 to Oct. 19, 2006. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

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