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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Noboa Keeps Upper Hand in Ecuador’s Run-Off
- Álvaro Noboa could become the next president of Ecuador, according to a poll by Informe Confidencial. 58 per cent of decided voters would support the Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) candidate in next month's run-off. Former economy minister Rafael Correa of Alliance Country (AP) would finish second with 42 per cent.
In the first round, held on Oct. 15, Noboa garnered 26.8 per cent of the vote, while Correa got 22.8 per cent. Since no contender received more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off was scheduled for Nov. 26.
Last year, public protests against the elected government intensified after the Supreme Court threw out pending charges of corruption and mishandling of funds against former presidents Abdalá Bucaram and Gustavo Noboa. In mid-April, then-president Lucio Gutiérrez instituted a 24-hour state of emergency. The National Congress later voted to oust the head of state and replace him with vice-president Alfredo Palacio.
On Oct. 20, former vice-president and Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) candidate León Roldós—who finished fourth in the first round—discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "I am not endorsing Noboa and I question Correa's behaviour, but I think we have to try to save democracy because with Noboa as president we could have economic and political stability, albeit after six months."
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential run-off?
(Valid votes)
Álvaro Noboa (PRIAN) | 58% |
Rafael Correa (AP) | 42% |
Source: Informe Confidencial
Methodology: Interviews with 1,300 Ecuadorian adults in 15 provinces, conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 22, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.