October 29, 2006

Abstract: - Former head of state Daniel Ortega is still the candidate to beat in Nicaragua, according to a poll by CID-Gallup published in La Prensa. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate in next month's presidential election, up four points since August.

- Former head of state Daniel Ortega is still the candidate to beat in Nicaragua, according to a poll by CID-Gallup published in La Prensa. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate in next month's presidential election, up four points since August.

Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC) is second with 22 per cent, followed by José Rizo of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) with 17 per cent, Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) with 13 per cent, and Edén Pastora of Christian Alternative (AC) with one per cent.

In 2001, the PLC's Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The PLC and the FSLN have traditionally been the dominant parties in the Central American country's political scene. Montealegre once belonged to the PLC, and the MRS was assembled by former FSLN members.

In March 2005, the FSLN officially designated Ortega as its presidential nominee. Ortega governed from 1985 to 1990, but was a losing candidate in the 1990, 1996 and 2001 ballots.

On Oct. 27, Ortega refused to attend a debate with Montealegre in Managua. The ALN-PC candidate expressed disappointment, declaring, "It was important for (Ortega) to show up, but he unfortunately decided not to do so. (...) During his government, we had alliances with conflictive countries, wars, divisions, press censorship and half a million Nicaraguans emigrated to look for a better life."

The Nicaraguan presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 5. In the event no presidential contender receives 40 per cent of all cast ballots, the first place finisher can only avoid a run-off by reaching the 35 per cent mark and holding a five-point advantage over the closest rival.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Oct. 2006	Aug. 2006	Jun. 2006
Daniel Ortega (FSLN)	33%	29%	23%
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN)	22%	23%	17%
José Rizo (PLC)	17%	14%	11%
Edmundo Jarquín (MRS)	13%	14%	--
Edén Pastora (AC)	1%	1%	1%
None / Undecided	14%	19%	32%

Source: CID-Gallup / La Prensa
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,242 Nicaraguan adults, conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 23, 2006. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.