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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Ortega Still First in Nicaraguan Election
- Former head of state Daniel Ortega maintains his position as the most popular in Nicaraguan presidential contender, according to a poll by Borge y Asociados. 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) member in next month's election, up 3.2 points since August.
Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC) is second with 22.4 per cent, followed by José Rizo of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) with 14.6 per cent, Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) with 10.1 per cent, and Edén Pastora of Christian Alternative (AC) with 0.4 per cent.
In 2001, the PLC's Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The PLC and the FSLN have traditionally been the dominant parties in the Central American country's political scene. Montealegre once belonged to the PLC, and the MRS was assembled by former FSLN members.
In March 2005, the FSLN officially designated Ortega as its presidential nominee. Ortega governed from 1985 to 1990, but was a losing candidate in the 1990, 1996 and 2001 ballots.
On Oct. 25, Oliver North—a former Marine and aide to U.S. president Ronald Reagan—visited Nicaragua. North urged voters to support Rizo instead of Ortega, declaring, "My hope is that the people of Nicaragua are not going to return to that. That's not good for your country. That's not good for my country."
The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 5. In the event no contender receives 40 per cent of all cast ballots, the first place finisher can only avoid a run-off by holding a five-point advantage over the closest rival.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential election if the candidates were these?
Oct. 2006 | Aug. 2006 | Jul. 2006 | |
Daniel Ortega (FSLN) | 30.0% | 26.8% | 31.4% |
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN-PC) | 22.4% | 23.9% | 29.1% |
José Rizo (PLC) | 14.6% | 16.4% | 15.7% |
Edmundo Jarquín (MRS) | 10.1% | 19.1% | 15.2% |
Edén Pastora (AC) | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% |
Source: Borge y Asociados
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Nicaraguan adults, conducted from Oct. 5 to Oct. 12, 2006. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.