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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Nicaragua’s Ortega on Pace for First Round Win
- Former head of state Daniel Ortega remains the top contender in Nicaragua's presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby International and the University of Miami School of Communication. 35 per cent of respondents would support the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate in next month's election.
Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC) is second with 20 per cent, followed by José Rizo of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) with 16 per cent, Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) with 14 per cent, and Edén Pastora of Christian Alternative (AC) with one per cent.
In 2001, the PLC's Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The PLC and the FSLN have traditionally been the dominant parties in the Central American country's political scene. Montealegre once belonged to the PLC, and the MRS was assembled by former FSLN members.
In March 2005, the FSLN officially designated Ortega as its presidential nominee. Ortega governed from 1985 to 1990, but was a losing candidate in the 1990, 1996 and 2001 ballots.
On Oct. 19, Montealegre ruled out a formal alliance with the PLC, declaring, "If it's to defeat Daniel Ortega, how can I join forces with Arnoldo Alemán, who is the one that gave Ortega all his power?"
The election is scheduled for Nov. 5. In the event no presidential contender receives 40 per cent of all cast ballots, the first place finisher can only avoid a run-off by reaching the 35 per cent mark and holding a five-point advantage over the closest rival.
Polling Data
If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Oct. 2006 | Sept. 2006 | |
Daniel Ortega (FSLN) | 35% | 34% |
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN) | 20% | 19% |
José Rizo (PLC) | 16% | 13% |
Edmundo Jarquín (MRS) | 14% | 10% |
Edén Pastora (AC) | 1% | 1% |
Other | -- | 1% |
Not sure | 14% | 23% |
Source: Zogby International / University of Miami School of Communication
Methodology: Interviews with 800 likely Nicaraguan voters, conducted from Oct. 1 to Oct. 5, 2006. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.