Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Nicaragua’s Ortega Could Win in First Round

October 19, 2006

- Former head of state Daniel Ortega is the clear frontrunner in Nicaragua's presidential race, according to a poll by Universidad Centroamericana released by Canal 10 and El Nuevo Diario. 37.5 per cent of respondents would support the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) member in next month's ballot.

José Rizo of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) is second with 20.1 per cent, followed by Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC) with 17.3 per cent, Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) with 12.9 per cent, and Edén Pastora of Christian Alternative (AC) with one per cent.

In 2001, the PLC's Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The PLC and the FSLN have traditionally been the dominant parties in the Central American country's political scene. Montealegre once belonged to the PLC, and the MRS was assembled by former FSLN members.

In March 2005, the FSLN officially designated Ortega as its presidential nominee. Ortega governed from 1985 to 1990, but was a losing candidate in the 1990, 1996 and 2001 ballots.

Yesterday, Ortega urged his supporters to pay little attention to polls, declaring, "Surveys showing us ahead keep coming out, but people should not fall into the trap of believing we have already won and there is no need to get out and vote. Be careful, they are trying to get us to stay at home with the old tale that we have already won."

The Nicaraguan presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 5. In the event no presidential contender receives 40 per cent of all cast ballots, the first place finisher can only avoid a run-off by reaching the 35 per cent mark and holding a five-point advantage over the closest rival.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Daniel Ortega (FSLN)

37.5%

José Rizo (PLC)

20.1%

Eduardo Montealegre (ALN)

17.3%

Edmundo Jarquín (AH)

12.9%

Edén Pastora (AC)

1.0%

Source: Universidad Centroamericana (UCA) / Canal 10 / El Nuevo Diario
Methodology: Interviews with 15,330 Nicaraguan adults, conducted with a paper ballot from Sept. 30 to Oct. 8, 2006. Margin of error is 0.8 per cent.

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