October 07, 2006

Abstract: - Former economy minister Rafael Correa is the clear frontrunner in Ecuador's presidential race, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 37 per cent of respondents would vote for the Alliance Country (AP) contender in this month's election, up 11 points since late September.

- Former economy minister Rafael Correa is the clear frontrunner in Ecuador's presidential race, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 37 per cent of respondents would vote for the Alliance Country (AP) contender in this month's election, up 11 points since late September.

Former vice-president León Roldós of the Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) is second with 21 per cent, followed by Álvaro Noboa of the Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) with 19 per cent, and Congress vice-president Cynthia Viteri of the Social Christian Party (PSC) with 12 per cent.

Support is lower for Gilmar Gutiérrez of the Patriotic Society Party (PSP), Fernando Rosero of the Ecuadorian Roldosist Party (PRE), Marco Proaño Maya of the Movement for Democratic Vindication (MRD), Luis Macas of the Confederation of Indian Nations (CONAIE) and Luis Villacís of the Popular Democratic Movement (MPD). 18 per cent of respondents are either undecided, or will cast a blank ballot.

Last year, public protests against the elected government intensified after the Supreme Court threw out pending charges of corruption and mishandling of funds against former presidents Abdalá Bucaram and Gustavo Noboa. In mid-April, then-president Lucio Gutiérrez instituted a 24-hour state of emergency. The National Congress later voted to oust the head of state and replace him with vice-president Alfredo Palacio.

Palacio—a cardiologist—had previously acted as Ecuador's minister of health and is not directly affiliated with any political party.

On Oct. 5, the four main candidates participated in a televised debate. Correa reiterated that he would not negotiate a free trade deal with the United States. Roldós vowed to "eliminate the scar of corruption." Noboa said he would not foster diplomacy with Venezuela or Cuba, adding, "I'm not a hypocrite." Viteri said voters could choose between "responsibility or more violence and more chaos."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 15. In the event no presidential contender receives 50 per cent of all cast ballots, the first place finisher can only avoid a run-off—which would take place on Nov. 26—by reaching the 40 per cent mark and holding a 10-point advantage over the closest rival.

Polling Data

If you had to vote today and these were the candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?

	Oct. 2	Sept. 23	Sept. 20
Rafael Correa (AC)	37%	26%	22%
León Roldós (RED)	21%	18%	19%
Álvaro Noboa (PRIAN)	19%	11%	10%
Cynthia Viteri (PSC)	12%	10%	12%
Gilmar Gutiérrez (PSP)	6%	3%	3%
Fernando Rosero (PRE)	2%	2%	2%
Marco Proaño Maya (MRD)	1%	1%	2%
Luis Macas (CONAIE)	1%	--	--
Luis Villacís (MPD)	1%	--	--
Not sure / Blank	18%	27%	28%

Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 3,360 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from Sept. 27 to Oct. 2, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.