October 03, 2006

Abstract: - Former head of state Daniel Ortega is holding on to the top spot in Nicaragua's presidential race, according to a poll by M&R. 30.9 per cent of respondents would vote for the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) member in this year's election, down 1.2 points since August.

- Former head of state Daniel Ortega is holding on to the top spot in Nicaragua's presidential race, according to a poll by M&R. 30.9 per cent of respondents would vote for the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) member in this year's election, down 1.2 points since August.

Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC) is second with 26.4 per cent, followed by José Rizo of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) with 16.3 per cent, Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) with 15.9 per cent, and Edén Pastora of Christian Alternative (AC) with 0.9 per cent.

In 2001, the PLC's Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The PLC and the FSLN have traditionally been the dominant parties in the Central American country's political scene. Montealegre once belonged to the PLC, and the MRS was assembled by former FSLN members.

In March 2005, the FSLN officially designated Ortega as its presidential nominee. Ortega governed from 1985 to 1990, but was a losing candidate in the 1990, 1996 and 2001 ballots.

On Sept. 27, the MRS issued a communiqué, accusing Ortega of betraying the principles of the Sandinista revolution. The statement claims Ortega's pact with former president and PLC member Arnoldo Alemán "only served to assign positions, pay huge salaries and establish a system of institutional corruption that benefits drug traffickers and the powerful, who can pay off judges."

The Nicaraguan presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 5. In the event no presidential contender receives 40 per cent of all cast ballots, the first place finisher can only avoid a run-off by reaching the 35 per cent mark and holding a five-point advantage over the closest rival.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Sept. 2006	Aug. 2006	May 2006
Daniel Ortega (FSLN)	30.9%	32.1%	27.2%
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN)	26.4%	27.2%	27.9%
José Rizo (PLC)	16.3%	14.9%	13.3%
Edmundo Jarquín (AH)	15.9%	21.6%	--
Edén Pastora (AC)	0.9%	1.4%	1.2%

Source: M&R
Methodology: Interviews with 4,204 Nicaraguan adults, conducted from Sept. 15 to Sept. 21, 2006. Margin of error is 1.54 per cent.