September 29, 2006

Abstract: - Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains the top contender in Brazil's presidential race, according to a poll by Instituto Sensus. 51.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the Worker's Party (PT) incumbent in this Sunday's ballot.

- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains the top contender in Brazil's presidential race, according to a poll by Instituto Sensus. 51.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the Worker's Party (PT) incumbent in this Sunday's ballot.

Former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) is second with 27.5 per cent, followed by former PT member and senator Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) with 5.7 per cent.

Support is lower for former education minister Cristovam Buarque of the Democratic Labour Party (PDT), Ana Maria Rangel of the Republican Progressive Party (PRP), Luciano Bivar of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), Jose Maria Eymael of the Social Democratic Christian Party (PSDC), and Rui Costa Pimenta of the Workers Cause Party (PCO).

Lula—a three-time presidential candidate—won the October 2002 election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against the PSDB's Jose Serra. In the first round, Lula received 47 per cent of the vote, while Serra garnered 24 per cent. In a prospective run-off against Alckmin, Lula holds a 21.9-point edge.

Last year, the Brazilian government was the target of criticism after Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) member Roberto Jefferson declared that members of two political organizations—the Liberal Party (PL) and the Progressive Party (PP)—received payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch. Jefferson has so far provided no evidence to back his allegations.

Yesterday, the campaign officially drew to a close. Lula declared, "Four years ago, we found a country in crisis that is very different now. If with problems and lack of experience we were able to do so much, think of what we'll be able to accomplish now."

Alckmin urged voters to support him, so he can "wipe out corruption" and deliver a government "with its feet on the ground, its eyes on the future and its heart on those who need the most."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 1. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Oct. 29.

Polling Data

What candidate would you vote for in the 2006 presidential election?

	Sept. 24	Aug. 25	Aug. 4
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)	51.1%	51.4%	47.9%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)	27.5%	19.6%	19.7%
Heloisa Helena (PSOL)	5.7%	8.6%	9.3%
Cristovam Buarque (PDT)	1.4%	1.9%	0.6%
Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)	0.6%	0.4%	--
Luciano Bivar (PSL)	0.1%	0.8%	0.2%
Jose Maria Eymael (PSDC)	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%

Run-Off Scenario

	Sept. 24	Aug. 25	Aug. 4
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)	55.6%	56.7%	52.5%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)	33.7%	30.8%	29.8%

Source: Instituto Sensus
Methodology: Interviews with 2,000 Brazilian adults, conducted from Sept. 22 to Sept. 24, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.