September 27, 2006

Abstract: - Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is holding on to an election-winning advantage in Brazil, according to a poll by Ibope. 47 per cent of respondents would support the Worker's Party (PT) incumbent in this Sunday's election, down three points since mid-September.

- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is holding on to an election-winning advantage in Brazil, according to a poll by Ibope. 47 per cent of respondents would support the Worker's Party (PT) incumbent in this Sunday's election, down three points since mid-September.

Former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) is second with 33 per cent, followed by former PT member and senator Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) with eight per cent, former education minister Cristovam Buarque of the Democratic Labour Party (PDT) with two per cent, and Ana Maria Rangel of the Republican Progressive Party (PRP) with one per cent. If only valid votes are considered, Lula would clear the 50 per cent mark.

Lula—a three-time presidential candidate—won the October 2002 election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against the PSDB's Jose Serra. In the first round, Lula received 47 per cent of the vote, while Serra garnered 24 per cent. In a prospective run-off against Alckmin, Lula holds a 15-point edge.

Last year, the Brazilian government was the target of criticism after Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) member Roberto Jefferson declared that members of two political organizations—the Liberal Party (PL) and the Progressive Party (PP)—received payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch. Jefferson has so far provided no evidence to back his allegations.

On Sept. 25, Lula predicted a first round victory, saying, "If anyone thinks the election will reach the run-off, they will have to wait for 2010, because this election will be finalized on Sunday. I never said I would win on the first round out of modesty, out of respect, but I want you to know that we will win on Sunday."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 1. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Oct. 29.

Polling Data

In October 2006, Brazil will have a presidential election. If the ballot took place today with these candidates, which one would you vote for?

	Sept. 22	Sept. 11	Sept. 7
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)	47%	50%	48%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)	33%	29%	27%
Heloisa Helena (PSOL)	8%	9%	9%
Cristovam Buarque (PDT)	2%	2%	1%
Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)	1%	1%	1%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)	--	1%	--
Jose Maria Eymael (PSDC)	--	1%	--

Run-Off Scenario

	Sept. 22	Sept. 11	Sept. 7
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)	52%	53%	51%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)	37%	37%	37%

Source: Ibope
Methodology: Interviews with 2,002 Brazilian adults, conducted from Sept. 20 to Sept. 22, 2006. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.