Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Correa Surge Continues in Ecuadorian Campaign

September 27, 2006

- Rafael Correa of Alliance Country (AP) has solidified his position as the most popular presidential candidate in Ecuador, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 26 per cent of respondents would vote for the former economy minister in next month's ballot, up four points in three days.

Former vice-president León Roldós of the Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) is second with 18 per cent, followed by Álvaro Noboa of the Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) with 11 per cent, and Congress vice-president Cynthia Viteri of the Social Christian Party (PSC) with 10 per cent.

Support is lower for Gilmar Gutiérrez of the Patriotic Society Party (PSP), Fernando Rosero of the Ecuadorian Roldosist Party (PRE), and Marco Proaño Maya of the Movement for Democratic Vindication (MRD). 27 per cent of respondents are either undecided, or will cast a blank ballot.

Last year, public protests against the elected government intensified after the Supreme Court threw out pending charges of corruption and mishandling of funds against former presidents Abdalá Bucaram and Gustavo Noboa. In mid-April, then-president Lucio Gutiérrez instituted a 24-hour state of emergency. The National Congress later voted to oust the head of state and replace him with vice-president Alfredo Palacio.

Palacio—a cardiologist—had previously acted as Ecuador's minister of health and is not directly affiliated with any political party.

On Sept. 25, Correa ruled out any sudden changes to the dollarization of Ecuador's economy, which began in 2000, adding, "I would be opposed to keeping the policy going indefinitely, because one of the symbols of a country's sovereignty is its currency."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 15. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Nov. 26.

Polling Data

If you had to vote today and these were the candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?

Sept. 23

Sept. 20

Sept. 17

Rafael Correa (AC)

26%

22%

19%

León Roldós (RED)

18%

19%

20%

Álvaro Noboa (PRIAN)

11%

10%

10%

Cynthia Viteri (PSC)

10%

12%

13%

Gilmar Gutiérrez (PSP)

3%

3%

3%

Fernando Rosero (PRE)

2%

2%

2%

Marco Proaño Maya (MRD)

1%

2%

2%

Not sure / Blank

27%

28%

29%

Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 3,360 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from Sept. 19 to Sept. 23, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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