Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Correa Becomes Frontrunner in Ecuador

September 23, 2006

- Former economy minister Rafael Correa is now the top contender in Ecuador's presidential race, according to a poll by Informe Confidencial. 22 per cent of respondents would support the Alliance Country (AP) candidate, up eight points in two weeks.

Former vice-president León Roldós of the Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) is second with 20 per cent, followed by Congress vice-president Cynthia Viteri of the Social Christian Party (PSC) with nine per cent, and Álvaro Noboa of the Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) also with nine per cent.

Last year, public protests against the elected government intensified after the Supreme Court threw out pending charges of corruption and mishandling of funds against former presidents Abdalá Bucaram and Gustavo Noboa. In mid-April, then-president Lucio Gutiérrez instituted a 24-hour state of emergency. The National Congress later voted to oust the head of state and replace him with vice-president Alfredo Palacio.

Palacio—a cardiologist—had previously acted as Ecuador's minister of health and is not directly affiliated with any political party.

On Sept. 18, Roldós expressed concern about Correa's recent surge, saying, "This is a candidate with fascist and intolerant practices." Correa, like Roldós, has voiced his wish to establish a constituent assembly if he becomes president.

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 15. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Nov. 26.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for among these prospective presidential candidates?

Sept. 17

Sept. 3

Aug. 2006

Rafael Correa (AP)

22%

14%

12%

León Roldós (RED)

20%

19%

27%

Cynthia Viteri (PSC)

9%

15%

15%

Álvaro Noboa (PRIAN)

9%

10%

12%

Source: Informe Confidencial
Methodology: Interviews with 2,950 Ecuadorian adults in 15 provinces, conducted on Sept. 16 and Sept. 17, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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